The Ratio Fell, the Losses Did Not — Q3 2026
Auto Lending Grew Again
Vehicle loans on the panel reached $487.7B at September 30, 2026, up 2.20% in the quarter and 3.92% over the year, after a change of 0.03% over the year to September 30, 2025. The panel's loans grew 7.61% over the same year, so vehicle loans fell further as a share of lending, to 27.5% from 29.9% two years earlier. Used vehicles were 66.5% of vehicle loans. The panel is the 4,143 credit unions that filed all nine quarters from Q3 2024 to Q3 2026, so each figure compares the same credit unions at every date.
Back to Growth: the table gives the panel's vehicle loans at each quarter-end from Q3 2024, their growth in the quarter, their share of loans and the 60+ day delinquency ratio on vehicle loans and on all other loans. Vehicle lending shrank or stalled through most of 2025 and grew in each quarter of 2026.
Vehicle Loans on the Panel, Q3 2024–Q3 2026 (credit unions that filed every quarter, Q3 2024–Q3 2026)
Copy link| Q3 2024 | $469.5B | — | 29.9% | 90 | 93 |
| Q4 2024 | $466.2B | -0.69% | 29.4% | 96 | 99 |
| Q1 2025 | $465.3B | -0.21% | 29.2% | 80 | 80 |
| Q2 2025 | $469.4B | 0.88% | 28.9% | 82 | 95 |
| Q3 2025 | $469.3B | -0.01% | 28.5% | 87 | 98 |
| Q4 2025 | $469.0B | -0.07% | 28.1% | 96 | 106 |
| Q1 2026 | $471.2B | 0.46% | 27.7% | 80 | 87 |
| Q2 2026 | $477.2B | 1.29% | 27.5% | 82 | 102 |
| Q3 2026 | $487.7B | 2.20% | 27.5% | 84 | 107 |
Where the Growth Is
The growth is at the largest credit unions, and the smallest are lending less. Among the credit unions with vehicle loans at both September 30, 2025 and September 30, 2026, in size bands fixed at the first date, vehicle loans grew 5.23% at the 424 with $1B to $10B in assets and 4.02% at the 20 over $10B, which together hold 76.6% of the panel's vehicle loans. They fell 6.10% at the 647 under $10M and 2.36% at the 1,663 with $10M to $100M. Delinquency rose in the smallest band, to 172‱ from 149‱, fell in the band from $1B to $10B, to 74‱ from 80‱, and rose in the largest band, to 108‱ from 103‱, whose nine-month charge-off rate rose most, to 113‱ from 102‱.
By Size: the table gives each band's growth in vehicle loans over the year, its 60+ day delinquency ratio and its annualized nine-month charge-off rate at both dates. Delinquency fell in the two middle bands, which grew their books, held in the second-smallest and rose in the smallest and the largest, the largest having grown its book as well.
Vehicle Loans by Size Band, Q3 2025 and Q3 2026 (panel credit unions with vehicle loans, bands at September 30, 2025)
Copy link| Under $10M | 647 | 0.2% | -6.10% | 149 | 172 | 38 | 40 |
| $10M–$100M | 1,663 | 3.5% | -2.36% | 98 | 98 | 46 | 49 |
| $100M–$1B | 1,274 | 19.7% | 1.56% | 85 | 81 | 77 | 74 |
| $1B–$10B | 424 | 55.3% | 5.23% | 80 | 74 | 89 | 88 |
| Over $10B | 20 | 21.3% | 4.02% | 103 | 108 | 102 | 113 |
The Reading Tested
A falling delinquency ratio can be read as auto credit improving, and that is the hypothesis this page tests. It predicts fewer delinquent loans, and lower charge-offs to follow. The panel shows neither. Delinquent vehicle loans grew 0.40% over the year while vehicle loans grew 3.92%, so on the panel the fall in the ratio comes from the larger book, not from fewer late loans. Growth does not explain it across credit unions, though: the 1,112 whose vehicle loans grew more than 5% saw their ratio fall to 76‱ from 78‱, and the 1,700 whose vehicle loans shrank more than 5% saw it fall to 101‱ from 104‱, their delinquent loans falling faster than their books. New loans, which have had little time to fall behind, can account for the first group's fall but not the second's.
Charge-offs kept rising. Net charge-offs on vehicle loans were $1,071M in Q3 2026, an annualized 89‱ of the quarter's average balance, against $1,008M and 86‱ in Q3 2025. Over the nine months the rate was 89‱, against 88‱ and 83‱ in the same months of 2025 and 2024. The improvement reading holds for the ratio alone: late loans did not fall in dollars, and losses rose by less each year but have not turned. Delinquency on all other loans rose over the year, to 107‱ from 98‱, so auto loans are not where the panel's delinquency is rising.
Growth and the Ratio: the table groups the credit unions with vehicle loans by how much their vehicle loans grew over the year. The ratio fell in each group: where books grew, delinquent loans grew more slowly, and where books shrank, delinquent loans shrank faster.
Credit Unions by Growth in Vehicle Loans, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026 (panel credit unions with vehicle loans)
Copy link| Grew more than 5% | 1,112 | 44.7% | 15.09% | 12.30% | 78 | 76 |
| Within 5% | 1,216 | 40.0% | 0.61% | -1.40% | 88 | 86 |
| Shrank more than 5% | 1,700 | 15.4% | -13.14% | -15.79% | 104 | 101 |
What Settles It
Test H-2026Q3-breakdowns-auto-01. Whether the system's net charge-off rate on vehicle loans for 2026 exceeds its rate for 2025, 90‱. The population is all federally insured credit unions, read from every filer as reported; the measure is net charge-offs on new and used vehicle loans for the year over vehicle loans at the year's end, scored in whole ‱ against the 2025 rate, which 4,287 credit unions reported. Settles with the Q4 2026 data; made after September 30, 2026, before the quarter ends. A reading above the threshold would be consistent with losses still rising on a book whose delinquency has fallen; a reading at or below it would be consistent with the lower delinquency reaching charge-offs. The evidence supports neither side, since the panel's nine-month rate is within a few ‱ of 2025's, so the test is published alone.
Connecting the Lines
This installment opens an auto lending thread. It follows Signals — Q2 2026 (October 5, 2026), which found none of the year's rise in delinquency in cards or vehicles; on the panel at September 30, 2026, delinquent vehicle loans were little changed from a year earlier while delinquency on other loans rose. Its companion for the quarter, Extend and Pretend? — Q3 2026, asks whether modified loans are holding delinquency down; the Call Report does not split modifications by loan type, so how many vehicle loans were modified, and how much of the fall in the ratio that accounts for, is not measured. Test H-2026Q3-breakdowns-auto-01 settles with the Q4 2026 data.
- Every figure is release v2026.3.4's, and every Q3 2026 figure rests on the credit unions that filed every quarter from Q3 2024 to Q3 2026, not on the system; the test's threshold is read on every filer at Q4 2025.
- Vehicle loans are the Call Report's new and used vehicle loans, delinquency is the reportable amount 60 days or more past due, and charge-offs are net charge-offs on those loans, annualized: over the nine months on the quarter-end balance, and for the quarter alone on the average of its two quarter-end balances.
- Growth on the panel includes balances acquired in mergers, and the size bands are fixed at September 30, 2025 assets.
- The Call Report does not split modifications by loan type, so the page cannot say how many vehicle loans were modified or how much a modification, which measures delinquency against new terms, lowered the ratio.
- The 5% growth cuts are the author's, and the page cannot separate new loans from old, since the Call Report does not report delinquency or charge-offs by the year a loan was made.
QuarterCall publishes analysis of publicly available NCUA Call Report data. Nothing here is investment, financial, or membership advice.