Signals
Quarterly flagship — 3–5 named signals that define what matters, what changed, and what to watch next. Every report across the series is at All reports.
Signals · Q2 2026
System Signals — Q2 2026
Loan growth picked up, mostly in real estate lending, and delinquency is higher than a year ago, with none of the increase in cards or vehicles, while the reserve build has stopped. The second quarter had the widest margin in the series, and the smallest credit unions still earn less than a year ago.
Revised Watch Credit qualityEarningsLiquidity and funding Licensed
Signals · Q1 2026
System Signals — Q1 2026
The first-quarter delinquency low came in above last year's, meeting the test the Q4 report set for a structural ratchet, and a seasonal deposit inflow met stalled loan demand. Margins reached a fresh high while the smallest credit unions earned almost nothing.
Revised Watch Credit qualityNet interest marginLiquidity and funding Licensed
Signals · Q4 2025
System Signals — Q4 2025
Delinquency breaches 1% for the first time and NIM expansion slows to a crawl, while earnings hold up as the margin outruns provisioning. We read the credit cost of that delinquency as still to come, once the loans convert to losses.
Revised Watch Credit qualityNet interest marginEarnings Licensed
Signals · Q3 2025
System Signals — Q3 2025
Delinquency reaches 0.95%, one quarter from breaching 1% at its current pace. NIM's recovery stalls near its high, while earnings keep improving as the margin outruns provisioning.
Revised Watch Credit qualityNet interest marginEarnings Licensed
Signals · Q2 2025
System Signals — Q2 2025
Delinquency rebounds past the seasonal dip, and every second-quarter reading since 2023 has been higher than the last. Loan growth reaccelerates while deposits flatten, and we read the funding gap that closed in Q1 as reopening.
Revised Pressure Credit qualityNet interest marginEarnings Licensed
Signals · Q1 2025
System Signals — Q1 2025
The first-quarter delinquency low is above last year's, so the seasonal dip no longer marks an improving credit trend. NIM rose for a fifth straight quarter, but ROAA was flat as lower fee income and higher operating expense absorbed the gain.
Revised Watch Credit qualityNet interest marginEarnings Licensed