Breakdowns
The mechanisms behind the headline numbers — why something is happening, how the pieces connect, and what the standard metrics don't show. Each article supports or challenges the thesis in the latest Signals. Every report across the series is at All reports.
Breakdowns · Q2 2026
The Funding Gap — Q2 2026
Loans grew about ten times faster than shares in Q2 2026, as they did in every second quarter since 2023. Over the full year shares outgrew loans, borrowings fell 12% and the margin widened, so we read the gap as seasonal rather than a funding squeeze.
Revised Liquidity and fundingLoan growthEarnings Licensed
Breakdowns · Q2 2026
The Delinquency Moved — Q2 2026
Card and vehicle delinquency stopped rising two years ago, and the whole net increase in the system's delinquent loans since then is secured by real estate. Almost nothing has been charged off on those loans, so the charge-off rate has held while delinquency rose.
Revised Credit qualityProvisioningLoan growth Licensed
Breakdowns · Q2 2026
The Terms Changed — Q2 2026
The fixed-rate mortgage book is the size it was four years ago, and almost all first-lien growth since is in loans whose rate is not fixed for their term. Certificates are now the largest kind of deposit, a rising share of deposits is above the insurance limit, and loans to borrowers in bankruptcy keep rising.
Revised Loan growthLiquidity and fundingCredit quality Licensed
Breakdowns · Q2 2026
Where the Losses Are — Q2 2026
Commercial real estate is the one real estate book on which credit unions are taking losses, and three-quarters of them are on non-owner-occupied property at a few dozen institutions. Delinquency, meanwhile, is spreading to the other kinds of property.
Revised Credit qualitySize cohortsLoan growth Licensed
Breakdowns · Q1 2026
The Cohort Earnings Divergence — Q1 2026
Credit unions under $100 million earn the system's second-widest margin and take its lowest credit losses, yet barely break even. We read the gap as scale, and their shrinking loan books move them further from it.
Revised Size cohortsEarningsLoan growth Licensed
Breakdowns · Q4 2025
The Provision Lag — Q4 2025
Delinquency crossed 1% in Q4 2025 while charge-offs and provisioning stayed flat. The gap did not inflate 2025's earnings, and we expect it to carry credit cost into 2026.
Revised ProvisioningCredit qualityEarnings Licensed
Breakdowns · Q3 2025
The Size Divide — Q3 2025
Credit unions above $10 billion tie for the system's highest return on assets and carry its highest delinquency and charge-offs, a split that has widened through this credit cycle. We read it as a loan mix weighted to consumer credit, and it concentrates credit risk where the Share Insurance Fund is most exposed.
Revised Size cohortsCredit qualityEarnings Licensed
Breakdowns · Q2 2025
The Funding Gap — Q2 2025
Loans grew more than twenty times as fast as shares and deposits in Q2 2025, reopening the funding gap that the first quarter's seasonal surge had closed. Borrowings rose for the first time in over a year, and we read the paydown of wholesale funding as near its floor.
Revised Liquidity and fundingLoan growth Licensed