Signals · Q2 2026 QuarterCall Research · October 5, 2026
Loan growth picked up, mostly in real estate lending, and delinquency is higher than a year ago, with none of the increase in cards or vehicles, while the reserve build has stopped. The second quarter had the widest margin in the series, and the smallest credit unions still earn less than a year ago.
Share of loans 60 or more days past due, at quarter end
Source: NCUA Call Report · QuarterCall
Second-quarter readings
Every Signals edition sets tests for the next, and the next one says how they came out, including the ones we missed.
The Q3 2026 edition of Signals takes up every item on this list and says whether it continued, escalated, moderated or was dropped.
Each edition picks up the questions the last one left open, so a finding is never read alone. A thread shows the reports that carried it and the test it faces next.
Signals Breakdowns Other
Each first-quarter low since 2022 has sat above the one before, and the Q4 2025 report’s test for a ratchet was met in Q1 2026. None of the past year’s increase is in cards or vehicles: the whole net rise is secured by real estate.
Latest: The Delinquency Moved — Q2 2026
Next test: The second-half climb. Delinquency rose 12 bps from June to December last year; a repeat ends 2026 above 1.03%.
Delinquency crossed 1% in Q4 2025 while charge-offs and provisioning stayed flat. By June 2026 the reserve build had stopped, and the open question is whether loans secured by real estate, where the new delinquency is, simply lose less.
Latest: Where the Losses Are — Q2 2026
Next test: The reserve build. Provisions equal to charge-offs hold the allowance level; coverage is 1.37 times against 1.45.
Loans grew about ten times faster than shares in Q2 2026, as in every second quarter since 2023. Over the full year shares outgrew loans, so we now read the gap as seasonal; the Q2 2025 edition read the same pattern as a gap reopening.
Latest: The Funding Gap — Q2 2026
Next test: Borrowings. They rose in Q2 2025 too, then fell; a second consecutive rise would be new.
Every asset tier above $100 million earns more than a year ago. Credit unions under $100 million, more than half the charters and 3% of assets, return 0.43% for the half against 0.76% a year earlier.
Latest: System Signals — Q2 2026
Next test: The smallest tier’s full year. The year-end figure shows whether the first quarter was the outlier.
Breakdowns · Q2 2026
Loans grew about ten times faster than shares in Q2 2026, as they did in every second quarter since 2023. Over the full year shares outgrew loans, borrowings fell 12% and the margin widened, so we read the gap as seasonal rather than a funding squeeze.
Revised Liquidity and fundingLoan growthEarnings
Breakdowns · Q2 2026
Card and vehicle delinquency stopped rising two years ago, and the whole net increase in the system's delinquent loans since then is secured by real estate. Almost nothing has been charged off on those loans, so the charge-off rate has held while delinquency rose.
Revised Credit qualityProvisioningLoan growth
Breakdowns · Q2 2026
The fixed-rate mortgage book is the size it was four years ago, and almost all first-lien growth since is in loans whose rate is not fixed for their term. Certificates are now the largest kind of deposit, a rising share of deposits is above the insurance limit, and loans to borrowers in bankruptcy keep rising.
Revised Loan growthLiquidity and fundingCredit quality
Breakdowns · Q2 2026
Commercial real estate is the one real estate book on which credit unions are taking losses, and three-quarters of them are on non-owner-occupied property at a few dozen institutions. Delinquency, meanwhile, is spreading to the other kinds of property.
Revised Credit qualitySize cohortsLoan growth
A summary of each board meeting, for the board packet.
Latest from the NCUA Board Board Meeting Digest — June 2026 →QuarterCall Data · free
4,215 credit unions filed for Q2 2026. Their filings, amendments included, are free to download and query.
