Signals · Q3 2026 QuarterCall Research · November 3, 2026
Delinquency and reserve building both exceeded Q3 2025's pace, and one credit union accounts for each
Among the credit unions that filed for every quarter since Q2 2025, delinquency rose a little faster in Q3 2026 than in Q3 2025 and provisions ran further ahead of charge-offs, but one credit union accounts for each difference, and without it each move was smaller than in Q3 2025. Loans outgrew shares as borrowings rose for a second quarter, and return on assets fell below Q3 2025's in every size band, so all four signals continue to the year-end tests and none is settled.
- 1Delinquency Rose by a Little More Than a Year Earlier, and Without One Credit Union by Less
- 2The Reserve Build Grew in Q3 2026, and Outside One Credit Union It Shrank
- 3Loans Outgrew Shares Again as Cash Fell and Borrowings Rose for a Second Quarter
- 4The Panel's Widest Margin Came With Lower Return on Assets in Every Size Band
60+ day delinquency, all federally insured credit unions
Share of loans 60 or more days past due, at quarter end
Source: NCUA Call Report · QuarterCall
Second-quarter readings
What we're watching in Q4 2026
The Q4 2026 Signals will revisit each item on this list and say whether it continued, escalated, moderated or was dropped.
Signal 1 · Delinquency Rose by a Little More Than a Year Earlier, and Without One Credit Union by Less
- Watch: The second-half climb
- Watch: Commercial real estate
- Watch: Delinquency by band
Signal 2 · The Reserve Build Grew in Q3 2026, and Outside One Credit Union It Shrank
- Watch: The reserve build
- Watch: Coverage of delinquent loans
- Watch: Loan modifications
Signal 3 · Loans Outgrew Shares Again as Cash Fell and Borrowings Rose for a Second Quarter
- Watch: Borrowings
- Watch: Second-half loan growth
- Favorable: Real estate's share
Signal 4 · The Panel's Widest Margin Came With Lower Return on Assets in Every Size Band
- Favorable: The margin's direction
- Watch: The smallest credit unions' full year
- Watch: Return on assets by band
- Watch: Charter count
The quarter in figures
Also on Q3 2026
Every report, by topic, series and quarter →Breakdowns · Q3 2026
The Cohort Earnings Divergence — Q3 2026
Credit unions under $100 million returned an annualized 0.72% on average assets for the first nine months of 2026, against 0.87% for the first nine months of 2025, and each quarter of 2026 fell further short of its 2025 quarter. The first quarter's one large loss is outside these figures and most of the tier earned less, so we read the shortfall as the tier's rather than one quarter's or a few credit unions'.
Size cohortsEarnings
Breakdowns · Q3 2026
Extend and Pretend? — Q3 2026
On the credit unions that filed every quarter from Q3 2024, loans modified for borrowers in financial difficulty grew about three times as fast as loans in the year to September 30, 2026, and the allowance covered 84.2% of modified and 60+ day delinquent loans, against 97.3% two years earlier. Those are the conditions extend-and-pretend needs, not its signature: where modifications rose, delinquency and charge-offs rose too, so we read modification as a response to trouble and set a test on whether the 41 credit unions that fit the pattern lose more by Q3 2027.
Credit qualityProvisioning
Breakdowns · Q3 2026
The Funding Gap — Q3 2026
On the credit unions that filed every quarter from Q2 2025, loans grew faster than shares in Q3 2026, borrowings rose for a second quarter, and over the year to September loans outgrew shares, the reverse of the order the Q2 2026 edition read as seasonal. We read the quarter as weighing on that reading without overturning it, since ten credit unions' rises equal seven-tenths of the net rise in borrowings and the fourth quarter, when shares outgrew loans in each of the last two years, has yet to report.
Liquidity and fundingLoan growth
Breakdowns · Q3 2026
The Ratio Fell, the Losses Did Not — Q3 2026
On the credit unions that filed every quarter from Q3 2024, the 60+ day delinquency ratio on vehicle loans fell to 0.84% at September 30, 2026 from 0.87% a year earlier, while delinquent vehicle loans rose slightly in dollars and the nine-month charge-off rate was 0.89% against 0.88%. We read auto credit as no better than in Q3 2025 and set a test on whether the system's vehicle charge-off rate for 2026 exceeds 2025's 0.90%.
Revised Credit qualityLoan growth
Trends and peer comparisons
Refreshed with each releaseFrom the NCUA Board
A summary of each board meeting, for the board packet.
Latest from the NCUA Board Board Meeting Digest — June 2026 →QuarterCall Data · free
Every figure here starts from the Call Reports QuarterCall Data republishes, one file per quarter.
4,181 credit unions filed for Q3 2026. Their filings, amendments included, are free to download and query.