QuarterCall Research
Signals · Q2 2026
Return on assets rose from a year earlier at every size of credit union except the smallest, where it fell
Loan growth picked up, mostly in real estate lending, and delinquency is higher than a year ago, with none of the increase in cards or vehicles, while the reserve build has stopped. The second quarter had the widest margin in the series, and the smallest credit unions still earn less than a year ago.
QuarterCall Research · October 5, 2026
- Loan Growth Accelerated, Led by Real Estate Lending
- Delinquency Is Higher Than a Year Ago, and the Increase Is Outside Cards and Vehicles
- Quarterly Margin Highest Since 2019; Half-Year Returns Still Down at the Smallest Credit Unions
Read Signals — Q2 2026 Licensed
Q2 2026 Signals
Latest Research
Breakdowns · Q2 2026
The Funding Gap — Q2 2026
Loans grew about ten times faster than shares in Q2 2026, as they did in every second quarter since 2023. Over the full year shares outgrew loans, borrowings fell 12% and the margin widened, so we read the gap as seasonal rather than a funding squeeze.
Revised Liquidity and fundingLoan growthEarnings Licensed
Breakdowns · Q2 2026
The Delinquency Moved — Q2 2026
Card and vehicle delinquency stopped rising two years ago, and the whole net increase in the system's delinquent loans since then is secured by real estate. Almost nothing has been charged off on those loans, so the charge-off rate has held while delinquency rose.
Revised Credit qualityProvisioningLoan growth Licensed
Breakdowns · Q2 2026
The Terms Changed — Q2 2026
The fixed-rate mortgage book is the size it was four years ago, and almost all first-lien growth since is in loans whose rate is not fixed for their term. Certificates are now the largest kind of deposit, a rising share of deposits is above the insurance limit, and loans to borrowers in bankruptcy keep rising.
Revised Loan growthLiquidity and fundingCredit quality Licensed
Breakdowns · Q2 2026
Where the Losses Are — Q2 2026
Commercial real estate is the one real estate book on which credit unions are taking losses, and three-quarters of them are on non-owner-occupied property at a few dozen institutions. Delinquency, meanwhile, is spreading to the other kinds of property.
Revised Credit qualitySize cohortsLoan growth Licensed
Signals · Q1 2026
System Signals — Q1 2026
The first-quarter delinquency low came in above last year's, meeting the test the Q4 report set for a structural ratchet, and a seasonal deposit inflow met stalled loan demand. Margins reached a fresh high while the smallest credit unions earned almost nothing.
Revised Watch Credit qualityNet interest marginLiquidity and funding Licensed
What We Publish
Signals
The quarterly interpretation. 3–5 named signals that define what matters, what changed, and what to watch next. Includes cycle positioning via CCPI and CUFSI.
Breakdowns
The deep analysis. Mechanism-level research on why something is happening — connecting the pieces that standard metrics don't show.
Pulse
The numbers behind the analysis. Standardized CAMELS metrics from NCUA Call Report data, updated quarterly — built for verification, comparison, and presentation.
Independence
QuarterCall Research is not affiliated with the National Credit Union Administration or any credit union, league, trade association, or financial institution. We have no financial relationships with any entity referenced in our analysis. All interpretations and signal assessments represent the independent views of QuarterCall Research.
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