The Delinquency Moved — Q2 2026
Real Estate Accounts for the Increase in Delinquent Loans Since Mid-2024
Loans 60+ Days Delinquent, by What Secures Them
| Kind of loan | Q2 2022 | Q2 2024 | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home loans | $2.37B | $4.40B | $5.72B | $6.90B |
| Commercial real estate | $0.26B | $1.29B | $1.64B | $2.18B |
| Credit cards | $0.72B | $1.62B | $1.64B | $1.67B |
| Vehicles | $2.01B | $4.05B | $3.97B | $3.94B |
| Other | $1.33B | $2.26B | $2.25B | $2.27B |
| Total | $6.69B | $13.63B | $15.23B | $16.96B |
From 2022 to 2024 every kind of loan in the table rose, the post-pandemic normalization this series described at the time. Since mid-2024 home loans and commercial real estate account for the whole increase. Real estate was 42% of delinquent dollars two years ago and is 54% now; cards and vehicles together have gone from 42% to 33%.
Source: NCUA Call Report, Q2 2026 · release v2026.2.27 · QuarterCall
Card and Vehicle Delinquency Has Been Flat Since 2024
At each mid-year from 2024 to 2026 the card delinquency rate reads 1.98%, 1.93% and 1.92%, and the vehicle rate 0.83%, 0.82% and 0.81%. Neither book has grown much: vehicle balances are $4.6 billion lower than two years ago and card balances $5.2 billion higher.
We pointed to these books in the Signals editions, the Q1 2026 edition by name, as where late-stage delinquency was most stubborn. Delinquency in both has since stopped rising.
Source: NCUA Call Report, Q2 2026 · release v2026.2.27 · QuarterCall
Home-Loan Delinquency Rose in Every Asset Tier
The delinquency rate on home loans went from 0.61% to 0.83% in two years, and stood at 0.39% in 2022. First liens and junior liens moved together, to 0.83% and 0.82%. Junior liens are the faster-growing of the two: balances have gone from $87 billion to $188 billion in four years.
Delinquent home-loan balances rose at 1,652 credit unions over the two years and fell at 769, so the rise is spread across the system rather than held in one portfolio. Among the 2,073 with at least $10 million in home loans at both dates, the median rate went from 0.37% to 0.53%, and the top decile now begins at 1.76%, up from 1.36%.
In every asset tier the rate rose: from 0.70% to 0.93% among credit unions under $100 million, and from 0.92% to 1.17% among credit unions above $10 billion. The institution with the most delinquent home loans holds 15% of them against 8% of home loans; without it the system's rate still goes from 0.56% to 0.77%.
60+ Day Delinquency Rate by Kind of Loan and Asset-Size Cohort, Q2 2026
| Cohort | CUs | Home loans | Commercial RE | Credit cards | Vehicles | All loans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $100M | 2,439 | 0.93% | 1.86% | 1.62% | 1.03% | 1.07% |
| $100M–$500M | 1,028 | 0.76% | 1.25% | 1.28% | 0.80% | 0.87% |
| $500M–$1B | 277 | 0.69% | 0.98% | 1.26% | 0.75% | 0.82% |
| $1B–$10B | 446 | 0.65% | 1.12% | 1.56% | 0.75% | 0.83% |
| Over $10B | 25 | 1.17% | 1.35% | 2.24% | 0.97% | 1.27% |
The Call Report does not say why, and this report does not either. It records where the delinquency is and what it has cost.
Commercial Real Estate Is a Small Book With the Fastest-Rising Delinquency
Commercial real estate is 11% of loans, $187 billion, and its delinquent balance has gone from $0.26B to $2.18B in four years. The rate was 0.22% and is 1.16%, above the rate on home loans or on vehicles.
The $1B–$10B tier, which holds most of the book, went from 0.62% to 1.12% in two years, while the largest tier's rate fell, from 1.87% to 1.35%.
It is also the one real-estate book where losses have begun. Net charge-offs on commercial real estate ran 0.03% annualized in the first half of 2024, 0.12% a year later and 0.18% now.
Charge-Offs Have Not Risen With Delinquency So Far
In The Provision Lag we read 2025 as delinquency rising while charge-offs waited, and expected the cost in 2026. Half of 2026 is in, and the system's charge-off rate is 0.78%, against 0.79% a year ago.
The collateral schedule accounts for that without a lag. In the first half, cards charged off at 5.17% a year and vehicles at 0.93%. Between them they are 66% of the system's net charge-offs, and their delinquency has been flat. Home loans charged off at 0.02% and are 1% of losses.
A delinquent card balance is written off within months. A delinquent mortgage is secured and is worked out or foreclosed over a much longer period, and on the charge-off record so far the collateral has covered the balance. We read the delinquency as aging instead: loans of every kind a year or more past due have gone from $0.97B to $2.11B in two years, though the Call Report does not itemize that bucket by collateral.
So far, charge-offs have not risen alongside delinquency: for most of the delinquency that grew, losses are not arriving at the rate the delinquency ratio implied. That does not establish whether further losses will emerge as these loans age.
The Coverage Ratio
The allowance covered 60+ day delinquent loans 1.52 times two years ago and 1.37 times now. On its own that looks like a thinning cushion, but the mix of delinquent loans explains most of it: the denominator grew by adding loans that lose almost nothing, and an allowance sized to expected loss would not grow in step with them. Per dollar of delinquent card and vehicle loans, the allowance rose from 3.64 to 4.15.
Commercial real estate is where the ratio bears watching: the book has a rising delinquency rate and a loss rate that has started to follow it.
Seasonality
Delinquency has fallen in every first quarter and risen in every second in this record. Of the $2.34B by which delinquent loans rose from the first quarter to the second this year, home loans were 77%; they were 81% the year before. Delinquent card balances fell in the second quarter in each of the last three years. The system's seasonal swing is largely the mortgage book's, and we read the first-quarter low the Signals editions track as set there too.
Real Estate Leads Both Loan Growth and the Rise in Delinquency
Real estate was 94% of the year's loan growth, $77.7 billion of $82.2 billion, and is 58% of the loan book, from 52% in 2022. The Q2 Signals edition reported loan growth coming back, and nearly all of what came back is mortgage and commercial property lending. The fastest-growing books are the ones whose delinquency is rising.
Connecting the Lines
We restate three things this series has said. Consumer-credit delinquency is no longer getting worse; that part stabilized in 2024. We read the flat charge-off rate as the effect of a shift toward secured delinquency; whether losses on those loans arrive later is not yet known. And the coverage ratio is not, by itself, a sign of thin reserves.
What replaces them is narrower. Home-loan delinquency has roughly doubled as a rate in four years across most of the system, without loss so far. Commercial real estate delinquency has risen several times over, and loss has begun. Both books are still growing. The figures are in The Ledger — Q2 2026.
What to watch
- Commercial real estate charge-offs — 0.18% annualized and rising for two years; this is the rate that would show the collateral failing to cover
- Loans a year or more past due — mostly home loans on our reading; aging without loss holds only while property values and workouts hold
- Junior liens — the fastest-growing book, at 0.82% delinquent
- Cards and vehicles staying flat — if they turn up again, the system has two credit problems instead of one
- The Call Report has itemized delinquency and charge-offs by collateral only since March 2022; there is no earlier cycle to compare with.
- Charge-off rates for the first half are year-to-date figures annualized over the average balance, and are not like-for-like with a full year's.
- The Call Report gives no reason for delinquency; the report names no cause for the rise in home loans.
- Tier figures are aggregates of the institutions in a tier at each date, and institutions move between tiers.
- That delinquent home loans have been charged off at almost nothing is the record of these cycles, not a forecast.